(Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell chats with National Intelligence Council Chairman Thomas Fingar: Photo is from The Washington Note)Intelligence Misestimates -- Washington Times
Tom Fingar's is not, of course, exactly a household name. Nor is the building he will depart a publicly recognized fixture in Washington's official real estate. Still, when the history of the Iranian nuclear threat - and all that flows from it - is written, his dismal tenure as deputy director for analysis in the Office of National Intelligence will figure prominently.
After all, at a critical moment in the Bush administration, as evidence mounted in late 2007 of the true and ominous nuclear weapons ambitions of an Iranian regime that professed an interest only in peaceful nuclear energy, Mr. Fingar was instrumental in producing one of history's most politicized and misleading National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs). The lead sentence of the summary of this document made the stunning statement that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003.
The effect of such a declaration was as palpable as it was predictable. Critics of the Bush administration seized on the finding to demand an end to any forcible effort to prevent the mullahocracy in Tehran from continuing to use its "peaceful" nuclear program as a cover for obtaining the bomb. Allies who knew better and had been pressed to join Washington in preventing such an outcome were appalled and alienated. Our enemies in Iran around elsewhere around the world were emboldened.
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Update: Contrary Commentary is from the Washington Note: National Intelligence Council Chairman Thomas Fingar on What Goes Into a National Intelligence Estimate.
My Comment: I am not privy to intelligence reports. I do not have any direct contacts with people in the intelligence community. What I rely on is the past history of these organizations, how accurate they have been in their assessments, and if possible, determine the political agenda of the main authors.
In this particular case, the NIE does not have an exemplary record. But they are trying .... and for that I will give them a little credit.