From Michael Totten:Since Abu Musab Al Zarqawi formed the Al Qaeda in Iraq franchise, the terrorist group that destroyed the World Trade Center has fought American soldiers and what they call the near enemy, fellow Muslims, instead of civilians in the homeland of the far enemy, the United States. This may be good for Americans, but it has been a catastrophe for Iraqis – especially in Baghdad, Ramadi, and Fallujah.
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My Comment: Al Qaeda will be in Iraq for a very long time. The degree to how much of an effective force it will be is the question that Michael Totten's article is trying to answer. He believes that with time Al Qaeda will degrade itself to an insignificant group. That the people in Iraq will hunt them down themselves, and wipe them out as a significant force.
Unfortunately, when we look at the history of insurgencies, we quickly learn that it does not take a large group to bring about a lot of pain. The militant arm of the IRA only numbered (at its maximum) 300 hard core members, but these men were successful in bogging a good chunk of the British Army fro 30 years.
Will this happen in Iraq? Are there a hard core group of 300 Al Qaeda members in Iraq? The answer is obviously yes. Will the fighting stop? The answer is also an obvious no. But can real progress over time be achieved to make Iraq a safer place for all? The answer is not yet definite .... but my gut is telling me that the direction is the right one, and Michael Totten's article confirms it.