Frequency and intensity of Western Wars (1600 - 1945). The 1618-1648 interval marks the Thirty Years' War, the 1789-1815 interval marks the Wars of the French revolution and the Napoleonic Wars, and the 1914-1945 interval marks the World War I and II.From The Telegraph:
Scientists believe they may have glimpsed a "law of war" that can be used to predict the likelihood of attacks in modern conflicts, from conventional battles to global terrorism.
The European Consortium For Mathematics in Industry was told today that an international team has developed a physics-based theory describing the dynamics of insurgent group formation and attacks, which neatly explains the universal patterns observed in all modern wars and terrorism.
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My Comment: The first thing that went through my mind was that this new field of study has the potential to significantly affect military procurements, budgets, strategic policies and analysis, promotions, political decisions. etc. .... the list is endless. Investment houses and big money institutions pay big bucks in using math to understand economic trends and developments .... why not on wars and conflicts.
I have been reading and studying history and the history of wars for the past 35 years. I find that as I grow older, my prediction on trends when they pertain to wars and conflicts is now almost 100%. It is not because I am smart .... it is that I now find history is always repeating itself when it comes to politics, economics, and conflicts/wars. I will not be surprise if mathematical models will prove me right.
Plus ca change .... plus c'est le meme chose. The more things change .... the more that they stay the same.