Government soldiers stand inside the former Supreme Court compound in Somalia's capital Mogadishu, December 29, 2006. SHABELLE MEDIA / REUTERS (Photo taken from Time Magazine)From War Is Boring:
“Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government and the opposition Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia on 26 October renewed a ceasefire agreement originally signed in June and agreed to form a unity government,” Jane’s reported today.
Yawn. I’m going to take a nap. Wake me up when the shooting stops and there’s REAL progress in Somalia.
Truth is, the ongoing negotiations between the TFG and the opposition are unlikely to bring any real change to the situation on the ground, at least any time soon. Reason being: the TFG is extremely weak in the place that matters most, Mogadishu.
On the side of the “good guys,” the big players in Mogadishu are the Ethiopians and the African Union, neither of which is likely to get too excited about a piece of paper with a few signatures on it. On the side of the “bad guys,” there are overlapping, and sometimes competing, groups of Islamic extremists, anti-Ethiopian nationalists and heavily armed criminals. The Alliance cannot just order all these fighters to lay down their weapons. Most of them follow their own rules.
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My Comment: Sigh..... the War Is Boring post is right.