From International Herald Tribune:
WASHINGTON: A new study of the global future by U.S. intelligence agencies suggests that Al Qaeda may be on the decline, having alienated Muslim supporters with its indiscriminate killing and inattention to the practical problems of poverty, unemployment and education.
While not contradicting intelligence assessments suggesting that Al Qaeda remains a major threat with a strong presence in the tribal areas of Pakistan, the report says the group "may decay sooner" than many experts have assumed because of severe weaknesses: "unachievable strategic objectives, inability to attract broad-based support, and self-destructive actions."
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My Comment: It will be decades before Al Qaeda has significantly declined ..... and it will decline because of education, technology, and the seduction of having a better life. Bin Laden may decide living in a cave is OK for him ..... but this view is a minority point of view that will not attract many followers.