A Saudi Nuke? -- Strategy Page
June 6, 2009: The United States believes that Pakistan has 60 nuclear weapons, and is producing nuclear material for at least 5-6 more bombs a year. The U.S. has provided money and technical assistance to ensure the security of those weapons. It is believed that Pakistan stores its nukes with the nuclear material kept separate from the rest of the weapon (which contains the explosives that compress the enriched uranium, causing the nuclear explosion, as well as the electronics and warhead components needed to trigger the explosion.)
Pakistan built its nuclear weapons in order to guarantee its independence from Indian attack, invasion and conquest. India has no interest in conquering Pakistan. That would nearly double the number of Moslems in India, as well as adding an area that has a lot more poverty and corruption. Then there are the Pakistani tribal territories, with over 20 million tribal people who have, for thousands of years, raided into, and occasionally invaded, India. Pakistanis are coming to accept this Indian attitude as true, and for the last five years, the two countries have been negotiating to settle the territorial and political differences that have caused decades of violence (and four wars) between the two nations.
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My Comment: A test of an Iranian bomb is one guarantee of a nuclear arms race in the region. For the Saudis to develop a bomb .... we are talking years and no guarantee of success. But an agreement with Pakistan would solve this problem right away .... and for Pakistan it would be a recoup of its investment in nuclear weapons.
Is this just a hypothetical possibility .... I do not think so. Pakistan has already been caught in the export of its nuclear technology to rogue nations, including Iran. If the Iranians develop their nuclear weapons program, many Arabs would invite the Pakistanis to export their nuclear tech and weaponry to them .... and would pay gladly for it.
As to what can the IAEA and the West do to stop it .... my guess is nothing.