Israel Watches Syria, Hopefully, But Warily -- New York Times
JERUSALEM — As Israelis watch the bloody confrontation between the Syrian people and the government of President Bashar al-Assad, they are torn by two sentiments: The downfall of Mr. Assad would deal a major blow to Iran and so would be welcome. But without a central authority, Syria could descend into being a land of chaos and terrorist bases on Israel’s northeast border.
Nearly a year into the Syrian uprising, the predominant view in Israel today is the former, that Mr. Assad must go, not only because he has killed thousands of civilians, but because he is a linchpin in the anti-Israel Iranian power network that includes Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Palestinian groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
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My Comment: Some like Israel's ex-spy chief sees an opportunity in Syria's civil war, and believes that the fall of the Assad government would also have repercussions in Iran. I do not see it that way.
I believe that Assad will eventually fall, and in it's place will be a fractured and unstable country filled with resentment and a need for revenge. But if the bloodshed gets worse before Assad is overthrown, I can easily see Syria becoming a failed state, creating a humanitarian and refugee crisis that would impact millions and destabilize neighboring countries like Lebanon and Jordan. And while Israel is not involved in this conflict, it has to live beside these countries .... a prospect that is unpleasant and uncomfortable to think about .... more so if sectarian strife and instability becomes the rule and not the exception.