Eurozone Break-Up Would Trigger £1 Trillion Of QE, See Banks Nationalised And Deep Recession, Warns Fathom -- Philip Aldrick, The Telegraph
A Eurozone break-up would plunge the UK into an even deeper recession than the last one, force the Government to nationalise the banks, and trigger a £1 trillion bout of money printing, leading economic consultancy Fathom has warned.
According to Fathom Consulting, the economy would shrink by 5.2pc in 2013 if the euro collapsed – a projection that former Bank of England deputy governor Sir John Gieve, speaking at Fathom’s quarterly Monetary Policy Forum, described as “modest”. In 2009, the worst year of the recent recession, the economy shrank by just 4pc.
The warning came as Moody’s, the ratings agency, lowered its UK growth forecast to just 0.4pc this year and 1.8pc in 2013, in the wake of the shock 0.7pc contraction in GDP in the second three months of the year. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development separately said the economy would shrink this year as a whole.
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My Comment: A sobering essay on what many are fearing will be the final outcome.