Xi Jinping (C), general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and chairman of the CPC Central Military Commission (CMC), talks with technical personnel and army members at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center on Feb. 2, 2013. Xi Jinping visited troops stationed in the nation's northwest ahead of the lunar new year, extending festival greetings and stressing frugality in the army. (Xinhua/Li Gang)
Chinese Signaling for Conflict: A Predictive Pattern -- Wendell Minnick, Defense News
TAIPEI — As things heat up in the East China Sea over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, it might be wise to know the signals China uses to warn of war and how Beijing handles crisis management.
A new report released in April by the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at the National Defense University looks at the history of Chinese threat and retaliation signaling. It offers up a future signaling scenario involving the South China Sea that should be required reading for the US Pacific Command and the US National Security Council.
Written by Paul H.B. Godwin and Alice L. Miller, “China’s Forbearance Has Limits: Chinese Threat and Retaliation Signaling and Its Implications for a Sino-American Military Confrontation,” looks not only at signaling but also at China’s crisis decision-making process and management.
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My Comment: For all China watchers, this is a must read. The 120 page report is here.