Open warfare has erupted in the last two years between the Mexican government and the country's powerful drug cartels. President Felipe Calderon has deployed more than 20,000 troops into areas dominated by the ruthless drug gangs. (Televisa)/ABC NewsFrom Strategy Page:
The internet has been rife with reports that US Joint Forces Command (JFCOM) is predicting the collapse of Mexico. The root of this story lies in a study produced by JFCOM entitled; The Joint Operating Environment (JOE). The report appeared in November 2008, and was intended for use in "long range planning guidance." It was not meant to predict anything. Media sensationalists latched on to the comments about "rapid collapse" scenarios in the JFCOM speculative study and totally missed the point that this was a "what if?" scenario for planning purposes, not a prediction. JFCOM's long-range planners thought Pakistan and Mexico were "worst cases" of rapid collapse. Okay, this is fodder for wargaming and long-range planning excursions. No doubt a Mexican collapse would have huge effects on the US. However, the direct comparison to Pakistan was a huge stretch. For numerous reasons we will get to in a moment -- though we were glad to see JFCOM discussing Mexico and its complex security challenges.
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My Comment: Pakistan is a far worse case than Mexico. It's society is not as fractured as Pakistan's, and it is money not religion that is motivating many who are fighting against the central government. In Pakistan, religion is the rallying cry .... a far more difficult foe to fight against.