Photo courtesy of REUTERS/KyodoNorth Korea “Backs Off”? -- Evan A. Feigenbaum, Council On Foreign Relations
So, the New York Times says that North Korea’s failure to respond to yesterday’s South Korean live-fire drills “could signal [a] new policy”—namely, that Pyongyang, to quote a South Korean analyst cited in the article, may be “trying to create the mood for dialogue.”
We’ll see. But, sorry, I just don’t buy it.
Why didn’t North Korea act after all the bluster? The fact is, North Korea often rains fiery rhetoric on the South. And conflict this time was unlikely because North Korea did not need to strike, having already achieved many of its objectives.
My Comment: The day that North Korea acts rationally is the day that dogs around the world will start storing sausages for a rainy day. In short .... it is not going to happen .... and when one realizes that obvious fact it is then easy to predict what North Korea`s response to this crisis will be.
On the nuclear front, they will talk about negotiations and compromise .... but they will continue building and developing their nuclear program . I expect another nuclear test in the new year, which in turn will be followed by demands for compensation in the form of monies, trade concessions, and foreign aid. But once this aid and compensation starts to flow in .... amnesia about promises and commitments from the North will be the new state of affairs with Kim Jong-il and his cadre.
Another military confrontation against the South will be one at North Korea`s time and location .... and it will happen. They have judged (correctly) that South Korea is weak, and they can easily be used as a punching bag by the North to divert their own population away from the suffering and misery that they have given them. After-all .... talk of war and conflict will always divert a person who is hungry away from his present problem to one that can be far worse.
China will do nothing .... the U.S. is impotent .... the UN is hopeless .... the South Korean`s do not want to escalate .... and Japanese suggestions to be tough are frowned upon (and condemned by those who remember the last war with Japan). Net result .... everyone thinks that their actions will bring peace .... but it is their inaction that will eventually bring war one day.